Notes
2
Thesis Support
0
Thesis Risk
1
Data Points
0
Evidence & Analysis
Thesis Risk
Apr 1, 2026
Seeded baseline
Macro Correlation Risk Limits Portfolio Diversification Value
Bitcoin has shown elevated correlation to risk-off equity moves in the current macro environment. The diversification value assumption in the original portfolio thesis is partially compromised.
Macro Context
Mar 1, 2026
Seeded baseline
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Expanded Institutional Access
US spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024 materially expanded institutional and retail access to Bitcoin exposure without self-custody. Demand from ETF inflows has been a durable bid source.
Full note
Spot ETF AUM has accumulated to over $50B+ across all issuers within 12 months of approval. BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the dominant product by AUM.
Thesis implication: the supply/demand dynamic now includes a persistent institutional demand channel that did not exist pre-2024. This structurally changes the volatility and drawdown profile assumptions.
Thesis implication: the supply/demand dynamic now includes a persistent institutional demand channel that did not exist pre-2024. This structurally changes the volatility and drawdown profile assumptions.