Notes
3
Thesis Support
1
Thesis Risk
1
Data Points
0
Evidence & Analysis
Thesis Risk
Apr 1, 2026
Seeded baseline
Chip Export Controls Limit Addressable Market
US export restrictions on H100/H100-equivalent chips to China and other restricted markets reduce the addressable market. NVIDIA has released compliant variants (H800, A800) but with reduced specifications.
Full note
Export control risk is ongoing and potentially escalating. The China revenue contribution has declined materially. Monitoring:
- Any new chip categories added to control lists
- H20 (compliant variant) demand trajectory in restricted markets
- Sovereign AI program purchases as offset to restricted market loss
- Any new chip categories added to control lists
- H20 (compliant variant) demand trajectory in restricted markets
- Sovereign AI program purchases as offset to restricted market loss
Thesis Support
Mar 1, 2026
Seeded baseline
Data Center Revenue Now Dominant Business Line
NVIDIA Data Center segment represents ~85% of total revenue in FY2026, driven by H100 and H200 demand from hyperscalers and sovereign AI programs.
Full note
The thesis originally assumed Data Center would grow to 60-70% of revenue. Actual penetration exceeded this scenario. The new question is whether the current demand environment represents a durable infrastructure build or a capex cycle peak.
FY2027 demand pipeline appears strong based on Blackwell architecture volume commitments from major CSPs.
FY2027 demand pipeline appears strong based on Blackwell architecture volume commitments from major CSPs.
Competitive Insight
Feb 15, 2026
Seeded baseline
AMD MI300X Gaining Inference Workload Share at Margin
AMD MI300X is winning inference-specific workloads at select hyperscalers. NVIDIA still dominates training workloads. Inference share competition is the medium-term watch.