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Watchlists

Speculative Radar

Julio Marchi · Speculative Bets · Active

High-volatility assets that need tight sizing and explicit catalysts.

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Items
4
High Conviction
1
Plans
2
with an operating plan on file
Actionable
2
ready / high-conviction / risk-watch
Needs Review
3
Distinct Sectors
1

Posture Breakdown

Risk watch — 1 High conviction — 1 Researching — 1 Archived — 1

Composition by Asset Type

Crypto — 3 items (75.0%) Equity — 1 items (25.0%)

Decision Workspace

TSLA Tesla Inc. Equity
Risk watch Needs update Refresh Thesis

Momentum-driven optionality if vehicle deliveries inflect.

Bull Case
FSD and robotics optionality could redefine TSLA from a car maker to an AI platform company.
Bear Case
Delivery volume softening, Cybertruck execution risk, CEO distraction eroding brand trust.
Entry Trigger
Watching delivery print and gross margin trajectory closely before sizing.
Break Condition
Gross margin compresses below 15% for two consecutive quarters.
Operating Plan
Edit Plan
Keep TSLA in a tightly managed speculative lane until deliveries and margin direction stabilize again.
Above entry zone Mapped to latest ingested price $271.40
$210.00 $285.00
Invalidate $210.00 Entry Low $215.00 Entry High $230.00 Trim $285.00 Current $271.40
Entry: +18.0% above zone Trim: +5.0% to target Risk: +22.6% cushion
Review Apr 22, 2026 40 days overdue Cadence 7d
Entry Zone $215.00 - $230.00
Trim $285.00
Invalidate $210.00
Monitor: Next review should focus on deliveries, gross margin, and whether energy storage can offset auto weakness.
Execution: No adds ahead of earnings; only revisit size if the business narrative improves and price reclaims the entry zone on ...
Horizon: 12 months Consumer Cyclical Reviewed: Feb 10, 2025 Medium conviction Log Review 2 notes
BTC Bitcoin Crypto
High conviction Refresh Thesis

BTC remains the cleanest high-beta macro liquidity expression.

Bull Case
Institutional adoption via spot ETFs, halving cycle supply shock, and macro liquidity tailwind.
Bear Case
Macro liquidity tightening, regulatory shock, or ETF inflow reversal could cause sharp drawdown.
Entry Trigger
Scale into pullbacks that hold above $45K; treat as capped-risk satellite position.
Break Condition
ETF inflows reverse materially for 30+ consecutive days or regulatory ban in key jurisdictions.
Operating Plan
Edit Plan
Manage BTC as a capped-risk satellite: add on controlled pullbacks, trim into euphoric extensions, and respect macro breaks.
At trim target Mapped to latest ingested price $67,701.59
$56,000.00 $67,701.59
Invalidate $56,000.00 Entry Low $62,000.00 Entry High $66,000.00 Trim $67,500.00 Current $67,701.59
Entry: +2.6% above zone Trim: +0.3% above target Risk: +17.3% cushion
Review Apr 25, 2026 37 days overdue Cadence 14d
Entry Zone $62,000.00 - $66,000.00
Trim $67,500.00
Invalidate $56,000.00
Monitor: Check ETF inflow trend, liquidity backdrop, and post-halving supply narrative at the next review.
Execution: Keep the sleeve capped; any trim above target should fund either cash or core ETF exposure.
Horizon: 12–24 months Reviewed: Mar 15, 2025 High conviction Log Review 2 notes
ETH Ethereum Crypto
Researching Needs update Refresh Thesis

ETH upside depends on fee and activity recovery.

Bull Case
L2 ecosystem growth and EIP-1559 fee burn create deflationary tokenomics narrative.
Bear Case
Activity migration to cheaper L2s reduces mainnet fee capture and ETH value accrual.
Entry Trigger
Need stronger on-chain activity trend before sizing up beyond a starter position.
Break Condition
Mainnet daily active addresses collapse permanently to L2s with no fee burn recovery.
Operating Plan
Set Plan
No operating plan recorded yet for this item.
Horizon: 12–18 months Reviewed: Feb 20, 2025 Medium conviction Log Review + Evidence
SOL Solana Crypto
Archived Stale Refresh Thesis

SOL has upside if ecosystem activity persists, but volatility is extreme.

Operating Plan
Set Plan
No operating plan recorded yet for this item.
Reviewed: Jan 10, 2025 Low conviction Log Review + Evidence