Quality Compounders Radar

Items

High Conviction

Plans

with an operating plan on file

Actionable

ready / high-conviction / risk-watch

Needs Review

Distinct Sectors

Posture Breakdown

Ready — 2 Waiting — 1 Researching — 1

Composition by Asset Type

Equity — 4 items (100.0%)

Decision Workspace

Add on durable product cycle weakness.

Bull Case

iPhone services flywheel and capital return program create durable compounding at scale.

Bear Case

China demand weakness and margin compression from rising AI capex.

Entry Trigger

Add on sub-$170 pullback or post-earnings weakness below 22× forward earnings.

Break Condition

Services revenue growth decelerates below 8% YoY for two consecutive quarters.

Operating Plan

Edit Plan

Accumulate on controlled weakness while services durability stays intact; trim only after a clear valuation re-rating.

$176.00 $215.00

Invalidate $176.00 Entry Low $190.00 Entry High $199.50 Trim $215.00 Current $198.50

Entry: Inside zone Trim: +8.3% to target Risk: +11.3% cushion

Review Apr 18, 2026 44 days overdue Cadence 21d

Entry Zone $190.00 - $199.50

Trim $215.00

Invalidate $176.00

Monitor: Next review should check Services revenue mix, gross margin resilience, and any EU App Store rule changes.

Execution: Only add in one-third size inside the entry zone; avoid chasing strength above the zone.

Horizon: 12–18 months Technology Reviewed: Mar 15, 2025 High conviction Log Review 4 notes

Cloud and enterprise AI remain core compounding engines.

Bull Case

Azure AI cloud leadership and Copilot monetization unlocking enterprise pricing power.

Bear Case

Capex discipline concerns as AI spending scales; execution risk on Copilot adoption curve.

Entry Trigger

Remain favorable on any 5%+ drawdown from recent highs; no specific price target needed.

Break Condition

Azure revenue growth drops below 25% — would prompt full re-evaluation of position sizing.

Operating Plan

Edit Plan

Keep MSFT in the ready lane, but only add if Azure AI monetization keeps pacing capital intensity.

$410.00 $470.00

Invalidate $410.00 Entry Low $430.00 Entry High $440.00 Trim $470.00 Current $448.49

Entry: +1.9% above zone Trim: +4.8% to target Risk: +8.6% cushion

Review Apr 27, 2026 35 days overdue Cadence 30d

Entry Zone $430.00 - $440.00

Trim $470.00

Invalidate $410.00

Monitor: Review Azure growth, Copilot seat expansion, and capex commentary before upgrading sizing.

Execution: Prefer adds on broad-market pullbacks instead of breakouts; keep position size below AAPL until the next earnings call.

Horizon: 18–24 months Technology Reviewed: Mar 10, 2025 High conviction Log Review 3 notes

GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Equity

Researching Needs update Refresh Thesis

Search cash flows remain strong; AI capex needs monitoring.

Bull Case

Search + YouTube + Cloud form a rare triple-moat advertising and infrastructure business.

Bear Case

AI chatbots could erode search click economics; Gemini capex margin drag.

Entry Trigger

Need clarity on AI search impact on click-through rates before adding to position.

Break Condition

Core search revenue growth turns negative for a full fiscal year.

Operating Plan

Set Plan

No operating plan recorded yet for this item.

Horizon: 12–24 months Technology Reviewed: Feb 20, 2025 Medium conviction Log Review 3 notes

AI infrastructure demand is real but position sizing matters.

Bull Case

Data center AI GPU demand has a multi-year runway as model training and inference scale.

Bear Case

Custom silicon from hyperscalers (Google TPU, AWS Trainium) could erode pricing power.

Entry Trigger

Waiting for post-hype price digestion; prefer entry after a 15%+ consolidation from highs.

Break Condition

Hyperscaler capex signals a sustained reversal — re-evaluate thesis entirely.

Operating Plan

Edit Plan

Treat NVDA as a momentum-sensitive compounder: wait for controlled digestion or trim into another vertical extension.

$118.00 $136.66

Invalidate $118.00 Entry Low $125.00 Entry High $132.00 Trim $135.00 Current $136.66

Entry: +3.5% above zone Trim: +1.2% above target Risk: +13.7% cushion

Review May 5, 2026 27 days overdue Cadence 14d

Entry Zone $125.00 - $132.00

Trim $135.00

Invalidate $118.00

Monitor: Check hyperscaler capex signals and Blackwell supply commentary at the next review.

Execution: Do not add above the trim line without a fresh thesis review; use any trim to recycle into lower-beta AI exposure.

Horizon: 12 months Technology Reviewed: Mar 5, 2025 Medium conviction Log Review 3 notes

Attention — This Watchlist

8 items flagged — full attention workspace

Plan Review Overdue AAPL Operating plan for AAPL in "Quality Compounders Radar" is 44 days overdue for review (2026-04-18).

Plan Review Overdue MSFT Operating plan for MSFT in "Quality Compounders Radar" is 35 days overdue for review (2026-04-27).

Plan Review Overdue NVDA Operating plan for NVDA in "Quality Compounders Radar" is 27 days overdue for review (2026-05-05).

High Conviction / Ready AAPL AAPL in "Quality Compounders Radar" is positioned as ready — confirm thesis is still current.

Entry Zone Touched AAPL AAPL is trading at $198.50 and has touched the entry zone ($190.00 - $199.50) in "Quality Compounders Radar".

Needs Review Update GOOGL Thesis for GOOGL in "Quality Compounders Radar" needs an update before the next decision.

High Conviction / Ready MSFT MSFT in "Quality Compounders Radar" is positioned as ready — confirm thesis is still current.

Trim Target Reached NVDA NVDA is trading at $136.66, above the $135.00 trim target in "Quality Compounders Radar".