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Julio Marchi Long-Term Growth
Watchlists

Dividend Upgrade Candidates

Julio Marchi · Income & Dividends · Active

Income names and ETFs under review for yield quality and payout resilience.

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Items
4
High Conviction
0
Plans
1
with an operating plan on file
Actionable
2
ready / high-conviction / risk-watch
Needs Review
3
Distinct Sectors
2

Posture Breakdown

Ready — 2 Researching — 1 Observing — 1

Composition by Asset Type

Equity — 3 items (75.0%) Etf — 1 items (25.0%)

Decision Workspace

JNJ Johnson & Johnson Equity
Ready Needs update Refresh Thesis

Healthcare stability with dependable dividend profile.

Bull Case
Healthcare defensive with 60-year dividend streak and pipeline rebuilding post-Kenvue spin.
Bear Case
Litigation tail risk and pipeline thin spot post-pharma restructuring.
Entry Trigger
Buy below $150 for a meaningful yield upgrade versus treasury alternatives.
Break Condition
Dividend cut or an unexpected litigation settlement materially above reserves.
Operating Plan
Edit Plan
Upgrade JNJ only if the defensive income thesis still offsets litigation and pipeline risk; otherwise stand aside.
Below invalidation Mapped to latest ingested price $161.26
$154.00 $175.00
Invalidate $165.00 Entry Low $154.00 Entry High $160.00 Trim $175.00 Current $161.26
Entry: +0.8% above zone Trim: +8.5% to target Risk: +2.3% below invalidation
Review Apr 24, 2026 38 days overdue Cadence 30d
Entry Zone $154.00 - $160.00
Trim $175.00
Invalidate $165.00
Monitor: Review litigation reserve updates, MedTech execution, and dividend coverage before the next decision.
Execution: If the invalidation threshold stays broken, do not average down until the thesis is rewritten.
Horizon: 3–5 years Healthcare Reviewed: Feb 28, 2025 High conviction Log Review + Evidence
KO The Coca-Cola Company Equity
Researching Needs update Refresh Thesis

Defensive consumer staple with resilient global brand.

Bull Case
Pricing power and brand moat enable consistent mid-single-digit EPS and dividend growth.
Bear Case
FX headwinds and private-label competition in a tight consumer spending environment.
Entry Trigger
Need better volume trend clarity before upgrading conviction beyond medium.
Break Condition
Volume growth turns consistently negative for two consecutive quarters.
Operating Plan
Set Plan
No operating plan recorded yet for this item.
Horizon: 3–5 years Consumer Defensive Reviewed: Feb 15, 2025 Medium conviction Log Review + Evidence
PG Procter & Gamble Co. Equity
Observing Stale Refresh Thesis

Consistent cash generation and dividend growth.

Bull Case
Stable global brand and pricing power through economic cycles.
Bear Case
Sugar and packaging input cost pressure; FX drag on international revenue.
Operating Plan
Set Plan
No operating plan recorded yet for this item.
Horizon: 3–5 years Consumer Defensive Reviewed: Jan 20, 2025 Medium conviction Log Review + Evidence
SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity Etf
Ready Refresh Thesis

Dividend ETF with quality screen and efficient expense ratio.

Bull Case
Dividend-growth ETF with quality screen and efficient expense ratio.
Operating Plan
Set Plan
No operating plan recorded yet for this item.
Horizon: Ongoing income allocation Reviewed: Mar 1, 2025 High conviction Log Review + Evidence